Friday, February 17, 2012

QCOR / GALE Update

QCOR was a trade idea from Feb 2nd (short) , yesterday QCOR saw a 4+% decline on pretty good volume. If you like the trade idea, there's still time as the target is $20 and you might even get a little better entry.

The original gap/support I was looking for to be hit has been since the idea first came up.

At the white arrows we see areas of either candlestick hammers , doji's or long lower wicks (short term reversal candles) all on volume. Whenever you see a reversal candle on heavier then normal volume, you usually get a little bounce and since we want to short in to strength, yesterday's 4+% decline on volume, leaving a long lower wick opens the possibility of a little bounce, giving you a better risk:reward entry.

The big picture in QCOR is very bearish...
The typical volatility associated with tops, plus it has already formed and completed a rounding top and is below support.

Here's our target area, although these often are overshot to the downside.
$20 at the long term trend line.

Keep this on your watchlist, any strength in price is an opportunity to add or initiate a position at lower risk, the probabilities are already high.

GALE was an associated pair trade on Feb 2nd with both stocks in the same industry group, QCOR short/GALE long. GALE should be treated as a more speculative trade because of price and liquidity, but it can make up for that in its ability to move fast, however it probably won't last as long as QCOR. It too is offering a decent looking entry now long.

 After the last run and pullback, yesterday formed a star reversal candle on increasing volume.

 It pulled back right to the 22 day moving average where we'd expect and all 3 X-over indications are still showing this as a long.

If you can see the blue Trend Channel, it's quite close as a natural stop so the entry is lower risk right now, with a stop on a closing basis of $.86. Note the ATR in GALE has doubled as it has made its move higher, a bullish signal. If it is going to make the next leg higher, this is about as good of an entry as you'll get.

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