Friday, February 17, 2012

USO Update

 USO intraday failure at the open

 RSI shows the loss of momentum and divergence

 The reason USO failed is the Euro didn't support the second run, so the first move should be to revert to the Euro intraday which is happening now.

 The 30 min chart is perfect for a swing move like thi, it's already divergent

 Same thing with the 15 min chart. First the short term charts will show the start of distribution, as it gets stronger they bleed in to the longer charts like the 15/30 min. Then the process kind of starts again whereby the short term chart go negative showing that the middle men whether specialists or HFT start filling their sell/short orders for the decline, I'll explain in more detail in my 3rd installment/post on 3C.

 Here are the short term chart doing that and at the second high which was the test that failed.

 I'd expecct the first target to be a move to revert to wherever the Euro is, currently this is where it is.

On a longer basis, USO is still rick to the FX correlation so the next target is around the red box, also note falling volume in to the bounce.

Longer term daily, USO has a lot of downside to revert toward the FX implied correlation, but it has to start somewhere.

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