Friday, February 17, 2012

VIX Chart Request...

We have a member trading VIX calls and made 40% on his last trade thus week. VIX has since pulled back, so we're looking for an entry...

This the VIX itself, whcih as I've shown several times has one of the most powerful leading positive divergences it has seen in years, remember that this is positive for the VIX and the VIX trades inversely to the market. However we can't get intraday 3C readings on the VIX, but we can on the intraday VXX.

The VIX has formed a bullish descending wedge that has broken out fro the Apex, the rules about wedges in the VIX aren't the same as equities as it is not an equity, but a volatility indicator commonly known as the Fear Index. Low readings show market complacency and are often seen at tops, high readings show fear and are often seen at bottoms, the VIX starting to turn up usually accompanies a market starting to turn down.

 Here's the VXX pulling back to it's moving average that has held well (between 8 and 10 days), also note the large increase in volume as it has rounded up.

 The Trend Channel held the VXX move down perfectly and was only stopped out at the white arrow, the current long stop for the VXX on the Trend Channel is $25.25 on a closing basis.

 Here;s the pullback over the last few days in the VXX/VIX, you can see the 3C negative divergence at the top on this 2 min chart (perfect for pullbacks) and as of yesterday, accumulation started in to the pullback. We want to see that increase and have...

The 5 min chart shows the same pullback and the same accumulation in to yesterday afternoon, it's made a huge leap today to a leading positive divergence on a 5 min chart and very early in the day for such a move.

Even if you are not interested in trading volatility, this has implications for broader market analysis.

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