ES Update

This is purely gut feel, but I would think a gap up tomorrow would be the most logical move and perhaps some additional momentum as the I-pad 3 is launched, however, there are rumors that Apple TV will be launched as well, this is a bit of a wild card, if it were launched that would give AAPL more upside momentum, on the other hand my research indicates AAPL has had trouble with content providers and therefore Apple TV may not be ready for launch. If the whisper rumor on the street is for Apple TV to be launched tomorrow and it is not, that could have a detrimental effect on the AAPL launch overall. This is an outside chance, but it could be a 1 day head fake in a situation like that, I'd prefer to see a strong close and retail wildly bullish.

In any case, tomorrow I don't see any major economic events that would really light a fire under the market, we have MBA Purchase Applications at 7 a.m. EDT, The Challenger Job-Cut Report at 7:30 (slight potential catalyst there), The ADP Employment Report at 8:15 (retail will react to this one, but for your own knowledge, this is a noisy series and not very accurate), and finally Productivity and Costs at 8:30-that's it for pre-market. So if there's to be a gap up on the open, I think it would most likely come from ES (S&P E-mini Futures) overnight. Perhaps at 3 a.m. EDT when Europe opens some news story about the Greek PSI is flipped and the market grabs on to that (in that case t would almost certainly be refuted within a few hours, but they just need something to get ES rolling).

Here's what ES looks like for today and thus far tonight.

ES from left to right, pre-market we saw a 3C negative divergence at 7 a.m. sending ES lower in to the N.Y. open.

We had a couple of positive divergences, but the most they did was create lateral trade or a break in the downtrend briefly and they failed sending ES to the lows around 2:15. We saw a modest bounce in to the close and since then, 3C is not in a positive divergence, but ES has moved higher then the NY close at 4 p.m. (1342.25 vs 1345 right now).