Tuesday, March 6, 2012

Market Update

 DIA 1 min not looking that impressive...

 The 2 min chart does look better and the DIA could certainly still see an intraday bounce, but I personally would not trade it.

 DIA 5 min looks pretty good so far for an intraday bounce.


 The IWM 1 min, this probably looks the best for an intraday bounce.

 IWM 2 min

 IWM 5 min is still in line with the trend, but the 1 min momentum seems pretty strong, I suspect it will fill in to the 2 and 5 min charts later.

 Looks like I closed that QQQ call right in time...

 QQQ 1 min has lost momentum here...

 The 2 min never gained any really.

 The SPY is slightly positive on the 1 min, but about as blah as the lateral price movement.

The 2 min chart is starting to show a little strength, I imagine some gap fill attempt will come of this.

The Dow-30 today saw it's biggest 1 day drop in 3 months. I'm going to come back to my comments about being long the market and it being like picking up spare change in front of a steam roller or "This is a very dangerous market". The underlying conditions from 3C to the risk assets/Credit to just about everywhere I looked (and I tried to make the bullish case, but just couldn't find the evidence to support it). This is exactly why-see the charts below.
 It's not easy saying this market is dangerous as it goes up .20% and closes green nearly every day, but today's drop, and it's not even that big, took out 21 days of longs or put them at a probable loss, there's roughly 22 trading days in a month, so a month worth of longs were trapped at a loss right on the open. Remember the sentiment indicator I posted and how wildly bullish retail has been.

 Note the trendline, everything above that is at a loss and the volume isn't even big, that's because the market doesn't need volume confirmation on the downside, only on the upside and it hasn't been there this entire rally. Actually the hallmark of a bear market is low volume.

Here's the opening gap down, there's no getting out on a gap down like that.

I'm going to switch templates and take a look at risk assets and Credit.

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