GLD Update

I'm not happy with myself right now. Last week I put out a head fake trade in GLD that netted nearly 215%, after that, I said what I was looking for to enter the next trade, it came and I totally missed it, but there may still be a happy ending.

I'm not going to get in to the longer term GLD analysis in this post, just the shorter term trades, which obviously have made some good money.

 Lets start with last week's trade. At the white arrow we were at resistance, GLD was showing negative 3C divergences and on that day I said, GLD is going to have to breakout to sucker in the longs as resistance was in place. The very next day we got the breakout, 3C still looked negative so as I suspected, it was looking more and more like the head fake trade I envisioned the day before. Some where around the red arrow I bought GLD puts in the WOWS options model portfolio and a few days later we had that big decline confirming the head fake and I closed the trade for a nearly 215%gain. I then said I'd be looking for the next short trade and I expected 3 days of consolidation inside the long down candle (specifically a falling 3 methods pattern, but I didn't care if it was textbook or not, it was the 3 days). As you can see, we got the 3 days and another decline today, bottom line, yesterday I missed the 3rd day and entry. That's on me.

 Here we see the negative divergence that sent GLD lower and gave us the 215% move, however since yesterday and in to today, it appears we have a positive divergence suggesting a move up on a short term basis.

On a 5 min chart, the divergence is leading positive, so this looks like GLD is going to see a pop. If it doesn't gap up tomorrow on the open, there may be a quick long trade there.

If it does gap up on the open, we'll take a look and see if it makes any sense. Other then that, we'll just be looking for the next entry, long or short, it doesn't really matter as long as it's a high probability/low risk trade.

Since GLD has been trading with the market to some extent lately, this may be taken as another sign that we see a move up tomorrow, right in time for the I-pad 3 release.

As a reminder, Thursday at 3 p.m. we have the results from the Greek PSI debt deal, which doesn't look good so far (unless they do what they already said they wouldn't and extend the deadline). The implications of the debt deal are dire for Greece, if the bond /PSI deal fails, Germany has been pretty clear that the Greek bailout is off the table and then we are looking at what? Perhaps the first EU default?