Friday, April 20, 2012

AAPL Earnings 4/24 After hours

Well, this is interesting. AAPL reports Tuesday after hours. AAPL rarely misses, they did have that one miss 2 quarters ago, but AAPL is known for very conservative guidance so a beat is virtually guaranteed. I have a feeling there will be a knee jerk reaction, but I think the market will be picking this report apart and looking at everything, not just the earnings and revenues.

AAPL today, as I mentioned earlier seems like a move lower or in the area as it trades in $5 increments for options, is most likely. Short term it's not giving up much in the way of underlying action, it is the parabolic move this year and the long term charts that look very dangerous in AAPL.

 1 min nearly in line, slightly positive.

 2 min slightly positive relative divergence

 5 min slightly positive leading

Big picture, huge negative leading 60 min divergence. This makes AAPL very difficult tactically speaking, I think big picture, AAPL is done.

You know I don't trust parabolic moves, they always tend to fail spectacularly, check out AAPL on a 5 day chart.



As of now my plan is to try to get rid of that fat finger trade on some strength and enter AAPL short equities at about 1/3 of my normal size, I'll wait to see the reaction on Tuesday to add. An AAPL beat may pop the market to the upside short term, but if the market finds that AAPL is likely not going to do better, then AAPL's quick pop would be useful to add in to-that is if they beat.



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