Friday, April 20, 2012

European Close

 The European Top 100 closed up .68%, still below the now downward sloping 50 day average, but still above the downward sloping 200 day average. When I use to teach and particularly on the subject of trend classification and Dow Theory, I found a good proxy for trend classification was the slope of the 50/200 DMAs. The 50 dma representing the intermediate trend and the 200 representing the primary trend, so while the European top-100 still has probable support at the 200 which it will likely bounce off of short term, both the intermediate and Primary trends now seem to be firmly in the bearish camp, you might even say a bear market.

 Here's the breakout of the Euro I was counting on last night from an ascending triangle.

And a close up view shows a smaller ascending triangle that has just seen a breakout. I do not expect the larger breakout to hold, so this breakout is of particular interest in whether it holds or not. If it does and moves higher, the US stocks will have some more upside breathing room, if it fails on a head fake move, they will start to feel headwinds from $USD strength.

I'll be looking at risk assets next.


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