Wednesday, April 25, 2012

AAPL (or the market) Update

Here it is...

I wanted to give AAPL a little more time for the 5 min charts to catch up before updating AAPL. This early the 15 min chart likely has not caught up yet.

"Plan your trade, trade your plan"

 The plan was AAPL broke several important support levels, the trend in the market is to shakeout the shorts. There were 3 levels (as I updated them yesterday) that I wanted to see AAPL break to add to my short (unfortunately my short was a fat finger trade-that has been rectified) at $575, the psychological $600 level and the break above the descending triangle's upper resistance line shown on this chart, AAPL took out all 3. I want to short in to strength, this is the strength I was hoping for. (Note-although I won't rule out options trades on short term, strong signals, I'm transitioning to equity shorts).

 The 1 min with yesterday's late positive divergence, appears to be in line. This is why I like StockFinder for its 5000 bars of intraday history...

 AAPL is much higher than any point on this chart, to confirm, 3C should be at a new high on this chart, therefore AAPL has not confirmed the upside move, this suggests selling in to strength which can also be shorting as both acts come across the tape as a sale.

 The 2 min chart also has not confirmed, if it had, 3C would be where the blue arrow is now.

 The 5 min chart has not confirmed either and has a leading negative position relative to past history as well as a leading negative intraday. Again, it appears the hedge fund hotel trade is using strength to move out of large AAPL positions that were in many cases in the top 5 holdings, those are huge positions and take time to move out of for a large fund.

AAPL may have signed its growth death warrant with the declaration of a dividend, it killed MSFT's growth. Furthermore guidance was not good, even for AAPL that consistently is purposefully conservative on guidance.

 The 15 min chart is where all short intraday divergences (positive) would have accrued, however even here, we are not quite seeing confirmation. I look forward to watching this chart as the day moves on.

 These next two charts have nothing to do with what transpired since earnings, they are the longer term trend of underlying smart money action, the 30 min is leading negative.

The 60 min is SHARPLY and VERY quickly leading negative. It seems once Dan Loeb's top 5 holdings were released and AAPL was conspicuously absent from the prior month, it was a call to arms for other hedge funds that flock together as Loeb is one of the managers that hedge funds follow closely.

This is the MAIN reason I am short AAPL is the chart above.


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