GLD Update

I suspect GLD will be important in determining what the short term market implications are, unfortunately it is one of the more difficult assets to analyze and I don't think the short term- big picture has emerged yet (I know that's an oxy-moron).

 The initial knee jerk in GLD/gold was one of the only initial knee jerk reactions except for treasuries. If retail starts to think this policy statement is dovish, GLD will rally. The initial spike down was because there was no reference to extending Twist or QE3.

 While there was a small negative divergence JUST BEFORE the policy statement, it looks like GLD was accumulated at least on a 1 min chart as it hit lows, this may just be a quick trade Wall Street took on cheap gold, however it can also be a leading indicator as to interpretation of market sentiment-more so dumb money than smart. Note the negative divergence on GLD's run back up. Initially this looks like Wall Street grabbing cheap shares of GLD and selling them higher, again though, I don't think the larger picture for the near term market action has been laid out yet-maybe because of the Bernie speech coming.

 The 2 min chart shows a relative positive divergence at GLD's knee jerk lows, it also shows the same distribution of the move higher off those lows.

Just to confirm the short term, I'm using a 3 min chart as well, here too you see the negative divergence BEFORE the policy statement, a relative positive and a negative divergence in to the bounce off the lows.

I'll be a bit slow on the emails today as I don't want to miss a crucial signal.