Friday, October 19, 2012

AAPL Position

Earlier in the week I started an almost  laughable size position in AAPL $640 November calls  for one reason and this is why the position was so small, we still had that negative divergence that lasted all week yest held the market in a lateral consolidation, it's not something I've seen before on 10 min charts, on 1, 2 or 3 minute charts, yes, but 10 min, no.

So I started a very small AAPL call position just in case the lateral trade held and we didn't get the pullback 3C was telling us we should see.

I still feel pretty good about AAPL running a volatility shakeout of the shorts that entered on the neckline so I'm going to go ahead and add to the AAPL calls as this was the area I was hoping for.

AAPL is still low and the premiums should be better right now. Is this the perfect place for me? No, but when considering the longer term and the move expected in AAPL with the progress made today on this drop, it's close enough for what will remain a speculative size position.

I'll probably look at November $600 or so, maybe a bit higher but in the money as of now.

The charts
 AAPL 1 min since breaking below the 8-day support level with a leading positive divergence, I have to assume the stops hit there or sort orders (all supply) were accumulated otherwise I wouldn't expect a leading positive divergence and notice also AAPL's range has flattened out, this is where we see the most institutional activity, when people least expect it.

 AAPL 2 min in a large relative positive divergence and a leading positive as AAPL broke the obvious support level, as I repeat like a broken record, before almost ANY reversal of significance on every time frame, one of the last things we see is a head fake move which provides smart money with a lot of things such as supply, cheaper prices, sets up shorts to be squeezed, etc. There are a lot of reasons, but the bottom line is we almost always see it.

 The 3 min showing a negative divergence that seemed to hold AAPL in a consolidation range, as it led more to the downside finally AAPL and the rest of the market with the same signals broke, however today we have a sharp leading positive in a short period of time.

 The 10 min with the leading negative divergence and what was very hard to imagine, that a 10 min leading negative could only consolidate through time (sideways) rather than through price (pullback), well finally it did what it was expected to do, but we do have a relative positive divergence as the support level was broken.

 The 30 min is what has had the strength to push AAPL through the neckline and shakeout shorts, it still has that positive divergence that actually just turned up.

 Remember the big prize though with this 4 hour leading negative divergence that started well before AaPL formed a H&S top and broke down.

That shakeout move above the neckline is where the real opportunity is, the 4 hour chart is so negative, I don't see AAPL coming back from that without doing some serious basing work after a decline.

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