Friday, October 19, 2012

Quick Market Update

As of last night's Cash basis (not open interest) max pain option pin, the SPY was $145 which was down from the $145.82 close yesterday, but above the current $144.31. The SPX so far has moved directionally in the right direction, and the FAZ trade for today was partially based on that.

The QQQ pin was higher, if I recall, $68. The averages have all hit stop areas where they "can" pick up shares on the cheap here.

As for the charts thus far, still little confirmation so I wouldn't be surprised to see stopped out shares sold at higher prices from where we are. I wouldn't go playing an intraday counter trend move yet as there would almost certainly have to be some flattening out first, but if it comes up as a possibility, we'll look at it, it's not even noon time yet, still a lot of time for games.

 DIA with the "new" classic lateral top after an ascending wedge (bearish) , the DIA has filled the gap, also note the reversal candle last night on higher volume.

 DIA 1 min as mentioned earlier was already giving a leading negative divergence so price has just caught up with that divergence, it has a relative positive here .

 DIA 3 min shows the same, it went leading negative the last few days and now has caught up with the divergence.

 Intraday 1 min ES is showing some improvement, but as expected last night, the NASDAQ futures (despite price) have a  better looking chart as far as underlying trade goes. That would make for an interesting day for AAPL longs and new shorts.

 The 1 min NASDAQ futures look MUCH better than ES futures, we'll give it some time and see if this plays out, the NQ future signals have been pretty reliable.

 QQQ, like AAPL breaking under support that has held for about 8 days, that creates a lot of opportunities.

 QQQ intraday 1 min is still not confirming and it looks like the shares stopped out have been accumulated in the very short term.

 SPY filling the gap, we expected the SPY to close lower today, it also had the reversal candlestick on volume yesterday.

 The intraday 1 min chart suggests that while the SPY may close lower today, it may not close this low.

This I believe was the head fake move called out yesterday as the SPY broke above local resistance, but 3C was solidly negative. This morning there's not downside confirmation here, rather it too looks like stopped out shares have been accumulated.

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