Opening Indications

If the theory put together last night holds water, then we should see a rotation from Tech's underperformance relative to Financials and it should flip. The rest about options expiration will be interesting to see if it holds water, if it does, we'll have a new tool and I would adjust some trades for op-ex week like FXP and UVXY which were meant for a short term pullback signal that looks like more of a lateral consolidation.

Either way, I feel fine with exiting FXP and UVXY at a small gain or even break-even (+1%), they didn't do what I had hoped, but neither did the market as the consolidation wasn't through price, but time.

The opening indications made an exit on the initial dump look favorable, usually I'd wait until the morning trade has burnt off, but in this case the volatile morning trade may have just helped exit those two positions at a more favorable price.

Here are the opening indications, not much in the way of early downside confirmation.

 DIA intraday 1 min 3C was negative since yesterday afternoon and leading negative by the close, this morning's open brought price and 3C in line short term.

 ES with the European opening to the far left shows a negative divergence going in to the US open, but shortly after the dump a small positive divergence develops, this is one of the reasons I decided to close those two open positions this morning.

 NASDAQ Futures also had an opening positive divergence, interestingly the NASDAQ futures have a stronger intraday positive divergence than the SPX futures, a theme touched on last night and yesterday.

 QQQ 1 min with a small relative positive divergence on the early dump, it looks even better now.

 QQQ 2 min also with a relative positive divergence

 SPY 1 min with a small relative positive divergence on the move lower, the point is there wasn't 3C confirmation of a new lower low. This also looks slightly better in the last few minutes.

And a 2 min SPY relative positive divergence, still the QQQ one on the same timeframe looks better, so we'll see if Tech has better relative performance than Financials, I'll be looking for signs of that early on today.