Friday, October 19, 2012

Market Update

As mentioned earlier, it's pretty rare to see extreme price moves so early in the day hold throughout the day and we still have quite a bit of time.

There are improvements as I suspected there would be, I don't know if they close near the max-pain levels calculated from cash positions rather than open interest, but I think the general theme of the move up or shakeout continuing next week as we pass op-ex today is still very much intact and today's stop hitting drop could be a big help to that end.

I still want to check leading indicators and that is loading up now, I'll bring that to you next.

Bottom line, improvement.

 All week this 10 min negative divergence has been bothering me as it has sent the SPY in to a consolidation, but a lateral one and a 10 min divergence is pretty serious, it should see a price consolidation/pullback and today that finally happens.

 DIA 3 min is still in a relative positive divergence after having been in a negative divergence the last 3 days.

 DIA 5 min went from a relative positive and looks like it may be starting a stronger leading positive

 ES continues to improve as trade flattens out in to an intraday range.

NQ is also improving, although it stayed in leading positive position all day, 3C is now hitting new highs

 QQQ 1 min trend over the last 2 days in a leading positive divergence, this is why I suspected we'd see a rotation from Financials and back to Tech short term. In any case, on today's drop it is now in a stronger leading positive divergence.


 Today only on the same chart as above shows the range starting to establish in the same place where 3C is leading positive.

 Look at the 2 min as the divergence migrates from the 1 to the 2 min chart, that's impressive for such a short period.

 The 3 min, which is about equal to the NQ 1 min is looking just like the NASDAQ futures, it stayed in leading positive position, meaning the distribution in underlying trade was not nearly as strong as price movements would suggest.

 SPY 1 min leading positive in a big way as the SPY flattens out.

 2 min from relative positive to a migrating leading positive.

The same on the 3 min, relative positive to leading positive.

where we close on op-ex pin is not so much the message here, the expectation of a shakeout move higher after op-ex (next week) is pulling together well and with al the stops hit today, that allows quite a bit of fuel for pushing that move higher.






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