Thursday, October 4, 2012

Entire Tech Sector Represented by AAPL-NDX Too

Every once in a while I erase all trend lines and any other notation that would bias an opinion and just try to look with fresh eyes. Looking at the Tech sector, AAPL and the QQQ (which are all pretty closely correlated), there a similar H&S type top in Tech and the NDX.

Here's what I found.

 Here's the trend up since the June 4th lows, if we viewed this as a mini stage 2 going in to a stage 3 trend, it would make sense, the momentum in August is stronger than the momentum during June and July and momentum/volatility is what we see right before a stage 3 top is put in, then we look at September through present, we see a price pattern very similar to the slanting H&S price pattern in AAPL.

In fact here's the QQQ with AAPL overlaid...

 The QQQ 3 min trend at what would be the Head and a right shoulder.

 The 5 min trend and note the large change in character since August in this chart' trend.

 The 10 min chart-(separation of 1 or 2 left shoulders is pretty sloppy, I'll just call 1 Left), the Head sees the negative divergence you'd expect, the area at "1R" is leading negative.

 Trying to just clean up some of the noise, the 4 hour chart was bad at the last place we entered core shorts (March-May 1, 2012), now is worse with prices higher and a leading negative that is lower.

XLK-Technology
 Again the momentum changes can be see in the trend lines and the slanting H&S-like price pattern.

 The 10 min chart falls apart at the head and is worse at the area right of the head, there's a relative positive divergence in the leading negative that simply created what might be called a second right shoulder.

The 4 hour chart in Tech, also showing the first area of core shorts, the June lows, a pretty clean trend until the August/September area.

It seems AAPL is more of a bellwether than one would imagine, it virtually is 1/3 of the market.

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