Thursday, October 4, 2012

Gold / GLD the real deal or a quick trade opportunity?

As shown in yesterday's GLD/GLL update, there have been at least 2 head fake / false breakouts in GLD since QE3 was announced, I'll be watching this one closely today not only for the GLL position, but many of you have been making quick options trades off the market updates alone, in many cases lasting less than a day and seeing nice returns, GLD has that potential so long a there's a high probability signal in place.

Here's what we have thus far on what appears to be a gap up on dollar weakness as seen earlier, the Euro is making almost 2 trading week highs this morning.

 The daily GLD chart with 2 failed breakout attempts.

 There wasn't much volume at all on this move out of the tight range.

 So far the 1 min chart hasn't moved in any confirmation.

 The 2 min chart does show a positive move (it's not as large as it looks as it is zoomed in, it's around the same time we saw the Euro gaining momentum yesterday in 3C as price was flat, there is a relative negative divergence on the actual move this morning so far.

 The longer term charts as seen yesterday have already been in an ugly position.

As for Gold Futures (mini contract) YG
 The 1 min chart is simply in line and very choppy here.

The 5 min futures chart is leading negative.

If we get a strong leading negative signal today in GLD, I'll let you know and if you want to play a quick 1 day put on a move back to the range that's up to you.

No comments: