Thursday, October 4, 2012

The whole market is in a triangle awaiting the F_O_M_C minutes

Those negative divergences put the market in to a consolidation as it waits for the F_O_M_C minutes out at 2 p.m., remember the knee-jerk reaction that we almost always see with anything F_E_D related.

SPY triangle, this will probably grow a bit. The DIA and QQQ have the same triangle, the IWM is not so well defined.

This is what I'd call a wild card event, Technical Analysis will expect the triangles to break to the upside, what actually happens, I have no idea unless we can find what looks like a leak, that's what I'll be looking for and still you won't know which way it will break (although I'd say chances are better for at least a knee jerk break to the upside. The point being, if we can find a leak before hand, we know we can pull off some trades in to whichever way it breaks, otherwise we have to see what the underlying trade is telling us as the move occurs.

For the most part the averages are still weak on the 5 min charts, but improving on the 1 min which probably  is a big enough divergence to halt the market's upside from earlier and some support now to keep it in place rather than let it fall-adjustments. The other possibility is that 5 min chart being negative is part of the sign we're looking for, if it migrates to longer charts it almost certainly is. In that case, we'd most likely be looking to short any strength out of the minutes.

I'll get back with you ASAP on anything I find.

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