Thursday, October 4, 2012

In to the open

Yesterday with muddy short term signals, we looked toward the Euro's ETF, FXE for 3C signals looking for what today would look like, at least early on in the day.

I still find this phenomena interesting as it shows that the market is well aware and positioned for the next day in advance, from yesterday's Euro post linked above...

"One thing I've found, although I'm very hesitant to use the Euro as an analysis tool right before the ECB policy meeting tomorrow, is that when there's a divergence on the ETFs for the currency charts, even if the currencies go the other way overnight, a majority of the time the divergence from the day before plays out in the currency the next day. It's like the market knows where the currency will be when the market opens the next day at 9:30 or somewhere within that day and they position ahead of it the day before (today)."

Well it worked again,

 The Euro's close (EUR/USD) at 4 pm yesterday vs the open today at 9:30, the Euro is higher taking the market and other risk assets up with it.

 For the week, in fact for at least the last 9 days, the Euro is now at a new high close to the important $1.30 level as the ECB leaves rates unchanged.

 The SPX/SPY and market gapped up, there is some short term 1 min chart non-confirmation in a few averages, it doesn't extend very far while others like the DIA/Dow are seeing better looking 1 min charts on the open moving to confirm the gap up open.

 Oil moved up with the Euro, but saw some early pre-market volatility around 8 a.m. as Turkey's Parliament authorized cross-border incursions in to Syria after yesterday's deadly shelling exchange. The 1 min Light Sweet Crude chart looks like a little weakness is built in on the news, however...

The longer 5 min futures chart looks better just as we saw improvement in underlying trade in USO yesterday after the news of the shelling broke out.

More on the open and other indications coming.

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