Thursday, October 4, 2012

The Bullet Points


  • *FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW `SIGNIFICANT DOWNSIDE RISKS' TO GROWTH
  • *FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW `PERSISTENT HEADWINDS' TO RECOVERY
  • *FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAW FISCAL POLICY AS A `DRAG' ON ECONOMY
  • *FOMC PARTICIPANTS SAID HOUSING MARKET IMPEDING RECOVERY
  • *FED OFFICIALS SAW MANAGEABLE BOND BUYING RISKS, MINUTES SHOW
Maybe more interesting...

A number of participants questioned the effectiveness of continuing to use a calendar date to provide forward guidance, noting that a change in the calendar date might be interpreted pessimistically as a downgrade of the Committee’s economic outlook rather than as conveying the Committee’s   determination to support the economic recovery. If the public interpreted the statement pessimistically, consumer and business confidence could fall rather than rise.

Many participants indicated a preference for replacing the calendar date with language describing the economic factors that the Committee would consider in deciding to raise its target for thefederal funds rate. Participants discussed the benefits of such an approach, including the  potential for enhanced effectiveness of policy through greater clarity regarding the Committee’s future behavior. That approach could also bolster the stimulus provided by the System’s holdings of longer-term securities. It was noted that forward guidance along these lines would allow market expectations regarding the federal funds rate to adjust automatically in response to incoming data on the economy.


Read the last sentence, that is just what was posted about QE being priced in and it being the economic data that moves the market!!! 

It sounds like they are going to be experimenting with some different methods, perhaps disturbing to the market was the fate of TWIST.

I have to read the entire minutes later, but on the face of it it seems many of the "potential pitfalls" mentioned about QE3 were mentioned in some form or fashion.


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