Thursday, October 4, 2012

Market Update-SPX

I'm really trying to gather as much data as I can here as this is more than just about quick trades, this is about the future direction of the market which has always been very handy information to have before hand.

First I just want to go through the SPY with you, right now we aren't seeing any movement in price, but there are underlying trends that are moving (like the futures, so far they seem more risk off) and while some timeframes may not seem useful, I think it is useful to see what the market has been thinking about itself (Sounds like something Jack Sparrow would say).

 While the 1 min trend isn't scaled perfectly (it can't because it's lower than price), the intraday movement has been almost exactly the same as price, this would suggest that this triangle was a true indecision price pattern, while it's hard to believe someone somewhere didn't have an inside line, there's nothing on this chart that points to that. OR... The F_O_M_C _ policy sounded a little confusing in moving forward so the market is a little confused in not knowing what exactly they are going to do, the market doesn't like uncertainty and the F_E_D sounds like they want to remove certainty from an actual date that the market can COUNT on to Macro Economic data that the market is clueless about, and once again as was pointed out as a potential pitfall of QE3, although not specifically as I couldn't have known, I mentioned the inflation/policy question that topped the market out when Bernie spoke to reporters on the 13th. That was uncertainty, "if inflation rises, the F_E_D could alter the QE program", this sounds like even greater uncertainty although it is spun to be the opposite.


 I zoomed in the 2 min chart to scale it to the price action, you can see it was nearly in perfect sync.

 This is about where the 3 min trend belongs so it didn't confirm today, but roughly moved with price intraday.

 The 5 min chart was where the weakness has been today, I mentioned I'd be watching the 10 min chart for any migration...

 There is a little starting here.

Now it's the 15 min chart in line and watching to see if there's continues negative divergence migration across the 10 min and in to the 15 min. If so, I want to be looking at shorting on strength a bit more aggressively.

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