Tuesday, October 23, 2012

FB Update

This is not an easy call as far as earnings go and I'm not sure whether or not there is an earnings call here, however there is some strange trade and I suppose the way it develops in to the close will be important for earnings if there is a leak.

Based on what I see right now, If I HAD TO GUESS, I'd say there would be initial disappointment followed by optimism. If the short term charts like 1-2 min keep developing, then there may very well be a positive earnings leak.

 FB 30 min positive, recently earnings have gone the way of the longer term chart's bias, think CMG that missed and fell, the chart there was horrible on the longer timeframes and I have seen a lot of earnings follow that path, this is partly why I think whatever the knee jerk reaction is, it will be followed by more optimistic trade in FB.

 The 15 min chart leading positive as well.

 Very short term this 3 min shows a negative divergence and FB falling a bit from it, this is very zoomed in.

 I see the same on the 5 min


  And the 10 min

 The longer term trend of the 2 min shows only a very small version of this, zoomed in it would look larger.

The 1 min chart zoomed in also showed it, but there has been a recent surge in 3C on the 1 min chart and if this keeps up, I can't help but wonder if this is a positive earnings surprise as there would have been a pullback and then aggressive accumulation of that pullback in front of earnings.

It is hard to call it aggressive when it is on the 1 min chart only thus far, but if it continues, then we may very well have something. Remember GOOG didn't give us any clues until 15 mins before earnings.

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