Tuesday, November 13, 2012

AAPL Interesting

Lets just pretend that the market acts like some of the books we might have read 10 or 15 years ago, "Learn to Earn", Motley Fools, etc. 

When you consider the news out of AAPL in the last day or so, they are looking at IP5(S) already because as I even understood clearly when the IP5 was released, AAPL went from revolution to evolution; they went from leading to looking over their competitors shoulders to get ideas.

Then with the news yesterday that Samsung has upped the price of components needed in the Iphone and Ipad by  margin of +20%, one would think AAPL would be down pretty hard today, but they're not, they are up.

In any case, AAPL has been a disappointment for a while, it has not shown the underlying 3C strength that I hoped would develop and lead the market on a shakeout/clean-out of the shorts. I am glad that as AAPL fell, it wasn't giving positive divergences otherwise I'd be a little upset with 3C's indications.

However a few weeks ago I cautiously noted that something was changing in AAPL's underlying action, there were signs of a change, it wasn't huge, it wasn't a buy, but it was a change.

Now we've had some more time and some divergences have developed which is important because just like the 3 Pillars (Tech, Energy and Financials), I also think the market needs AAPL to at least not act as an anchor before the market can do what we've been waiting for patiently.

Here are the charts with some interesting finds...

 The 1 min opened to a positive divergence this morning, we do have a negative intraday divergence, but that's not really of too much interest to me-the opening indication is especially given the pre-market positive divergences in the futures that the market responded to so well thus far today.

 10 min AAPL leading positive, if this was the extent of the positive divergence, it wouldn't be surprising given some of the other timeframes and assets, but it's not.

 15 min leading positive-this is a more serious timeframe, it is kind of the line in the sand between a small move and something with more potential.

 However a 30 min leading positive divergence and the last 3 days momentum? Wow. In the past, wherever a divergence first starts, I've noticed price tends to exceed that level on the reversal, so that would be around $590-$630 and as I said, it tends to exceed those levels and with a 30 min positive... well who knows? It is a surprise.

Just for context of the 30 min chart and the change of character...

Here's the longer term chart with AAPL's top in clear view with a definitive change in character.

Maybe when the intraday timeframes start screaming I might look at this as actionable.

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