Tuesday, November 13, 2012

Financials and Confirmation

We'll be looking at XLF, the Financial sector as well as FAZ (3x leveraged short Financials ) and FAS (3x leveraged long Financials).

These aren't even managed by the same company (except FAS/FAZ) and they all have different trading volume (one of the things used in 3C calculations).

Basically what I'm saying is there's no way they would have such similar signals if there wasn't similar underlying trade in play.

 FAZ 30 min shows what looks to be a couple of upside head fake moves with a longer term negative divergence, remember this is the Financial Bear ETF. At the area in yellow around the dates, this would be the same area as the suspected head fake in the market averages where we have leading positive divergences, this is a leading negative.

 FAS-Financial long ETF with the same cycle and the same dates in yellow with a leading positive divergence

 Amazingly, the non-leveraged XLF looks almost exactly alike, they should in price, but the volume, block sizes, underlying trade should look very different as they trade completely different unless there was a unifying theme in the underlying trade. Just to make this example even more potent, take a look at a totally disconnected asset, a market average of the Tech heavy QQQ below.

Although I didn't circle the dates, the signals are nearly exactly the same. What are the chances of that?

This is how we build confirmation and this is the reason for the name "3C", from one of my favorite bits of market advice, "Compare, compare, compare"

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