Tuesday, November 13, 2012

There's just too much going on to think nothing is going on

The market moves at its own pace, which is sometimes frustratingly slow and seemingly very much at odds with what you expect, but I've learned over many years when you have a market making good on the concepts you expect to see (even if not exactly how you envision them or exactly when) and you see signals like these, I don't ignore them. Every time I've found a reason to write them off or explain them away, I've regretted it.

The problem is knowing for sure, we all want to know for sure and you can do that with the market, you just can't make any money doing that; by the time you know for sure, the opportunity has passed, that's why we look for evidence of the strongest probabilities and decide whether to go long, short or step away.

Here are just a few charts I collected this morning as I've been making my rounds and nearly every one is either very similar, has done what we expected, has the longer term more important and large positive divergences and/or has shown recent strong positive 3C momentum, I can't ignore these.

Look at the open! Look at the futures positive divergence this morning. The SPY gapped down to a new opening low and is now trading ABOVE the last 3 days' close!

 DIA 15 min leading above where the last peak high turned down, it has done everything forecasted.

 IWM 10 min leading positive again above the last peak high in mid-October with strong recent momentum where we'd expect to see it.

 QQQ 15 min also leading positive, has done all that we forecasted and has strong recent momentum on a longer term chart.

 QQQ 2 min, talk about strong recent momentum, look at that leading positive from yesterday and today.

 SPY 10 min leading positive, but also putting in that nice rounding area with lots of volatility to keep traders guessing.

 Treasuries as the Flight to Safety Trade, leading negative at a new high and these aren't the only charts for each of these assets, I just didn't want to overwhelm you with charts.


 Energy 15 min leading positive with a lot of recent momentum where we expect to see it.

 Financials 15 min leading positive.


Tech with tons of recent momentum.

I can't ignore these, the things/concepts we look for have or are finishing happening and the signals we thought we'd see are there.

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