AAPL Update

Yesterday I posted several times on AAPL, but these 3 are the most relevant to very short term "dead cat" or oversold bounce longs out there among you.

AAPL Update -Possible Trade

"AAPL has held up pretty well through the afternoon, some of you are already in a dead cat bounce trade which I wasn't a big fan of Friday, but there are some charts that have really shaped up and with the NASDAQ showing better signals than the other averages, that's an added bonus as well as the NQ futures.

I would still consider this a bounce trade and speculative at that, but I like it a lot better than I did Friday. I'll get some charts up for you."
Spec Calls For AAPL

"I think I might look at a speculative position , a Call for December at $520 or $525.

The Stock long might work as well, I just don't think it has enough profit potential and again I think this will probably be a shorter term trade."
AAPL Charts

So we have the move started in AAPL, yesterday I said it looked like a good place to consider a Call position on a speculative trade as you can see above, AAPL is up right now +2.21%.

Here are the current charts for AAPL, I don't have a specific target in mind although I did mention the gap at the $570 area, whether we hit that or not I can't say. What is important for me with AAPL if you took the bounce trade is 3C charts and deterioration, when it gets really bad, that's when I'd be pulling out and considering a short trade.

 Here's AAPL's daily chart with a 10-day moving average which is a good average for a bounce or even a short or new swing trade, AAPL may target that average, I also point out the gap around $570.

Below in white is a custom indicator based on price-only and you can see the negative divergence that meets with the AAPL downside reversal below the 10-day and a recent positive.

I pointed out the "Thrusting" candle at the white arrow yesterday on increasing volume, this is a decent reversal candlestick, but candlestick reversals have no target implications, it can be a 1 day reversal or the start of a new bull market, there's no way to judge anything more than the probability of a change for usually at least a day, sometimes it is just on an open, but more often about 1 day.

 AAPL 1 min this morning with no confirmation on the gap up, you can also see yesterday's positive divergence which is one of the things I liked more about AAPL yesterday for a dead cat bounce than Friday.

This opening chart suggests AAPL is seeing distribution in to the gap up/ higher prices.

 2 min AAPL chart with some negative divergences to the left sending AAPL lower and a head fake move in yellow sending AAPL lower, then the positive yesterday, today we have a negative on the open, again suggesting there's some selling in to the gap up.

 The 3 min chart with yesterday's positive divergence (this is why I liked AAPL a lot more yesterday as a bounce trade than Friday of last week), you can see here to a negative divergence.

AAPL was holding the NASDAQ 100/QQQ back. Remember in last night's post I talked about the 50-day moving average, here's the excerpt from last night....

"I mention the IWM's range being a obvious target, but another is the fact that all of the major averages have made it to their 50-day moving averages, which is also a widely followed metric. I mentioned earlier there could be several areas that are being targeted among each of the averages, but the 50 day is one of the most obvious and with all of the averages there, slightly above or just coming off, this is also probably not coincidental and wouldn't have been able to happen had the market continued lower as it was set to due before late Tuesday of last week, so I think this is something to pay attention to, especially any sharp upside volatility in the area as I have had a gut feeling that we will see that followed by a fast move to the downside and possibly seeing both occur on the same day."

And the QQQ chart-one of the only averages that didn't hold the 50 day moving average, making that an obvious target and needing AAPL to move to make it there...

Daily chart of QQQ, it failed to hold the 50 day and saw resistance below it for 6 days after the initial attempt. Today gives the QQQ the 50-day average, why is this important?

The IWM's target area for a shakeout and/or Bull Trap is VERY obvious, there's a clear range and resistance. Each of the other averages have their own areas, but none as consistent and widely followed as the 50-day moving average, this will get traders to move and make commitments so as I mentioned last night, the 50-day m.a., like a break above the IWM's range, is a perfect metric or "Road Sign" on the map.

I'll keep an eye on AAPL, it is not off to a good start, but we didn't expect it to have a strong start with underlying trade. The market averages and especially the NASDAQ will be important to watch as AAPL will likely be pinned pretty close to them directionally. In other words, if the market averages start to fail, AAPL is unlikely to continue higher alone; it's not a leader of the market right now, it's a laggard.