I really didn't expect there were going to be so many members taking the AAPL bounce trade, some still hanging in there, some bought a few contracts yesterday and made several thousand dollars today and are out and relaxing for the rest of the day. I'm really happy to hear it, but for those of you still in, here's your update and since there are multiple trends in AAPL ( a bullish one we have been following since late October that is much larger as well as a bearish one), I'll briefly address those and when we get to that bridge I'll cover them in more detail, but just for some context as things are moving as expected.
AAPL 1 min did not confirm, it is showing an intraday negative divergence so I believe there is distribution in to price strength here...
The 2 min intraday timeframe shows the positive divergence (which improved a lot yesterday for a short term trade), but again no confirmation this morning. Now for those who are trying to hold longs/calls as long as possible or profitable, we want to watch for migration of these negative divergences to the longer timeframes, when that happens, I'd really be looking at taking partial profits, putting a trailing stop in or just closing the position out.
The 3 min showed a positive leading divergence yesterday, this is something that wasn't there Friday, that's why on Friday I said, "You can probably make a long trade work here, but it's not my favorite and you need to be on the ball". Yesterday I said I felt much better about a bounce trade and if I had the time, I would have opened a call position there.
We can see a relative negative divergence here, so the 1 and 2 min timeframes ARE seeing the negative divergence migrate to longer timeframes, but I think there's still more left in AAPL, it's not at the target areas I mentioned earlier either.
The 15 min offers a look at a larger trend, but this is also part of a different trade we are yet to take, a longer term long position, I don't think we are there yet. I think we will see a sharp, stronger move in AAPL to new lows for this move before that trade is ready.
On the 30 min chart you can see the basis of that trade which I have been updating since mid-October, I do think AAPL will make a new low here first before this long is ready, but when it is, I think it will be a strong long trade.
Today's 60 min chart w/ a 50 bar m.a, note the volume pick up as it crosses above the m.a., but on the whole, volume is deeply unimpressive for the day vs recent days past.
Again, I think this is a sign that the AAPL trade is a bounce trade and not a long term trade. I still have an open AAPL put and I have no problem leaving it open, I think it will work.
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