Thursday, December 13, 2012

AMZN Short Trade Follow Up

Yesterday I brought the AMZN short in the equites Model Portfolio (which is mainly used to track positions) up to a full size position,  I added

" I think AMZN could hit or make a head fake move  above and would be an even better entry, that is at the $256+ area because there is a fairly obvious range or resistance level there, but I don't have time to watch this stock that closely with everything else  I have to do for a model portfolio position."

Then I posted the charts...

There's a possible better entry for AMZN short, but it didn't come today, it may come tomorrow if we get a market move to the upside as several indications today are pointing to (Leading Indicators, Volatility ETFs, Futures divergences, Market Average Divergences, etc.). So there's not much to add to yesterday's charts and explanation, the only changes would be these...

 Daily chart, the red trendline is obvious resistance, traders will be watching that area and are likely to buy AMZN if price can break through that resistance, remember, traders always want to buy confirmation which often lead to them chasing a trade and ultimately starting a trade off from a bad area. If you saw all the charts from yesterday-linked above- then you know AMZN's highest probabilities are for a deep pullback or trend reversal so any breakout is almost certainly going to be a failed breakout and 3C should tell us in real time whether it's being sold or confirmed. We want the move up in yellow, short there and wait for the ride down.

I put small lines below the daily candles, the red lines are an established downtrend believe it or not, the 2 orange lines are noise as they are insignificant to the trend and don't damage it.


 AMZN 3 min saw a relative positive divergence at point A and the same leading positive we saw throughout the market at point "B", this is a short term timeframe, short term moves.

I included the SPY's chart today in the exact same timeframe and it has the same leading positive divergence in the afternoon so AMZN probabilities of the trade coming to us on the plan outlined yesterday and above, look pretty good.


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