Thursday, December 13, 2012

TECS -Short Tech?

I didn't like the idea very much yesterday compared to some of the others, I felt we would get there, but with that area in the NASDAQ and a similar area in the Tech Sector, I've been hesitant to add to or initiate a Tech short here.

As I look at the charts and see how on the edge this market is, I think about the phasing in solution. In essence you could pick up some short Technology ETF (TECS-leveraged short tech) or short XLK, but do it either in speculative position size, allowing plenty of room for a wide stop in case the NASDAQ  and Tech can make it to those areas which would cause a Tech short some draw-down. Then you have exposure to the sector, if that move comes, your position sizing/risk management has so little risk that it's not a problem and you can then look at adding to the position so long as the charts are in your favor which I'm confident they would be, this is the phased in approach and it requires you to set up the plan before you enter even a partial position.

If you have a totally different aptitude and don't mind possibly missing the trade or having some exposure to the trade, then you have the best edge as you can just wait for that potential move (the break out in the QQQ above resistance-same for XLK) and you can enter a normal size position there with an excellent entry, very low risk and very high probabilities. That takes patience, it takes the willingness to possibly miss the trade if it doesn't come to you exactly on your terms, but if you have the aptitude for that kind of thing, that's the best alternative.

Since I'm getting so many emails about TECS and short Technology, I'll put together some charts and get that post out next.

No comments: