Earlier today I could see this trend developing in the 3C charts, but among the 4 major averages, there wasn't a single one that I could use to demonstrate what I was talking about as each average was at a different place in the process so I used ES (S&P Futures). You could see the 1 min chart which is really just intraday signals most of the time and it was sloppy, not in line with the market, but trying. Then you could see the 5 min chart (1, 2, and 3 min are what I consider to be intraday timeframes, each stronger than the previous- but 5 min is where there's a real difference and we start to see bigger institutional activity. We can see market maker/specialist and probably HFT activity on the intraday charts, but between 3 and 5 min, there's a big difference) which was putting in the first solid positive divergence of the last few days, this hints at a stronger move coming in the near term and as you know I've been looking for a break above Friday's intraday highs, I think that's the most likely area for us to start seeing some really strong signals that are worth acting on and that lead us to the next trend which is worth trading rather than chopping sideways.
However by the close I am able to show you what I saw early in the process now clear in all 4 major averages.
DIA 1 min had several smaller intraday negative divergences today, but the main theme was confirmation as 3C moved largely to higher highs with price.
The more important development under the surface is the longer charts that hold more sway, like this 5 min DI chart with a positive relative divergence and then adding a leading positive divergence in to the afternoon. This is what I was seeing hints on, but had no good example until now.
IWM 1 min was positive at the 11 am lows, but failed to make higher high on the 1 min chart, however there was something bigger going on below the surface, something price can't reveal.
The IWM 5 min chart in a leading positive divergence just like the DIA.
The QQQ was negative yesterday afternoon in to higher prices as mentioned last night, I thought it would create some early weakness today as posted yesterday, it did. Even though the Q's put in some decent leading 1 min positives today, the negatives during the afternoon were noticeable. Yet again...
A 10 min chart with a leading positive divergence nearly all of from today alone.
SPY 1 min was largely in line with price, the story was on the 5 min chart though...
Another leading positive divergence. This should get us to where we need to be.
I'll be back in a little bit after I check out a lot of other charts.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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