Tuesday, January 8, 2013

Market Update

All Leading Indicators except for Yields are signaling a risk on tone (this is of course relative to this range we have been in the last 5 days). The fact is intraday all credit, High Yield, Corp HY, Junk are all leading higher, I doubt credit would be moving higher with an impeding crash in the last hour of the day or even tomorrow, at least early in the day (I say this because as I've said from the start re: trend 1, I have a feeling it reverses uncharacteristically fast-an event rather than a process).

Currencies are cooperative with higher prices, some of our odd-ball leading indies are also supportive of higher prices. For newer members, these are not the strong, really clear signals that constitute a high probability trade, these are weaker signals, less money flowing and we have to dig a bit more.  In any case, it put's Friday's intraday highs back in site.

Interestingly Treasuries are moving quite close to the market direction, I'll try not to rad too much in to that, but I do suspect it's part of the trade unfolding in treasuries that is represented by that 15 min leading positive in TLT.

Nothing much has changed in AA, the 1 min positive divergence suggests someone is buying based on near term upside, perhaps after hours, perhaps early tomorrow.

The longer charts for AA that were negative and still are, look more like a rotation with the market to trend 2, but they do extend a bit further than most other stocks. The long term chart is very bullish, if I was a longer term investor, I'd be looking for a base or some kind of washout low because I believe AA may have a secular bull in front of it, or at least a primary bull, but that trade is still a way's off.

For now I like the AAPL call still, it will stay open.


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