Futures and Currencies

Here are my reasons for saying what I said...

 SPX futurs-ES are already showing a positive 1 min divergence from about 4-6 a.m. EDT this morning.

 More importantly, the 5 min chart which was very negative and the reason for our SPY Put closed yesterday at a profit and by the way, out of the 14 trading days this month, we have had at least 10 winning 1-2 day weekly (and 1 monthly I believe) trades and I loser so far of 2.5%. The point is it is moving more positive, not quite a trade yet, but maybe.

 The NASDAQ 1 min futures, not there yet, but things change fast.

 5 min NASDAQ futures are starting to go positive short term )1-2 days typically in our experience).

Currencies-and these are important as I have been preparing you all month for this...

EUR/USD-this pair is the "Risk on" pair that supports the market.

 Resistance by the ECB is $1.35, that's the roof. The uptrend since August has been broken, this is serious (daily).

 However on the 5 min, expect a kiss of the trendline goodbye, more likely is a head fake move above it, this will provide opportunities, this is why I urge patience.

 The important EUR/JPY carry trade has broken its daily trend and as a carry trade, this is trouble for the market.

 However on the 5 min chart as I have pointed out we transitioned from a strong up tend to a series of lower highs/lower lows, a downtrend as the carry trade is closed, note the difference between this pair and the USD/JPY below.

 The Daily USD/JPY has not broken the trendline, this is because the $USD is stronger than the Euro, this is a market negative. A strong USD puts pressure on nearly every risk asset from stocks to oil.


The near term 5 min trend is lateral reflecting problems with the Yen, important as a carry trade currency, this is also bad news for the market.

Near term though, I expect the snake to writhe on the ground, be patient, its back is broken and remember above all, price is deceptive, the market is deceptive, now more than ever, step back and see the big picture, don't get lost in the lines or emotion of intraday or day to day moves. I told you a few weeks before AAPL crashed, the back of the decade plus long trend was broken, but it can still be dangerous for those who don't understand it, for those who do, it's a great opportunity. PATIENCE.