Thursday, February 21, 2013

This isn't about ego, it's patience

I want to show you the tracking portfolio; I can't call it a model because it's not run like a model, I don't have the time and it's most important to me to be able to keep up with ideas many of you are in. Personally I don't need more than 6 positions maximum to get good coverage, I don't believe in over-diversification, I believe in picking good trades and managing risk. I want somewhere around 6 so I can not only play sector rotation, but I want to be entering longs as I'm taking profits on shorts and entering shorts as I'm taking profits on longs and many times I'll be phasing in to a position in parts-this is not dollar cost averaging as it is planned for ahead of time!

The point is simply this, I quote (paraphrase) Jesse Livermore once in a while when he said, "It wasn't being right that made him money, it was the sitting that made him money; a lot of people were right and lost money".

What he's talking about is the courage of your convictions and you can't have that without an edge yo trust, but as he mentioned, many people were of the same opinion as him, they just weren't able to sit it out through the emotional roller coaster of the market, it also takes risk management to do that.

Smart money plans positions (in my experience and from first hand knowledge) anywhere from hours ahead to at least a year and a half when it came to home builders being accumulated during the 2000 crash, they didn't really move for a couple of years after. The research sheets that I use to get from a major Wall Street investment bank made me think I was going to be a millionaire as I had the real deal in my hands, I couldn't make a penny with them, but when looking back at those sheets 6 months after, I saw the trades working, this is because smart money's positions are so large it takes significant time, effort and tactical manipulation to get in and out, not like us with a single trade.

In any case, I've been building the short positions as you know and have been hedging with short term options trades that have probably made far more than the short positions will as they have done very well, but the point being, in the equity model portfolio or tracking portfolio, yesterday the portfolio (entire) moved about +9% and that was just 1 day! Many positions like the equity short in AMZN are and have been at break-even or even green with additional hedging call positions that have made another 40% or so.

Yesterday's move alone did this to the rank which i normally don't care about, but found interesting.


#83 of 1900+ portfolios and these positions are being built, they aren't even what I'd call, "Working" yet. The point is, an edge, understanding the market and that means patience and risk management to survive, whether it be hedging or position sizing.

Way too often we get caught up in a single day or morning's move, day's like yesterday which was really mild compared to what we usually see can take 3 months of gains in a poor market environment that appears bullish like we have seen all year and put them at an instant loss in a day, look at AAPL, that's one of the best stories and largely because of emotional attachments.




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