Monday, April 29, 2013

AAPL $390 Call P/L & AAPL Update


The AAPL May 3rd $390 calls expiring this week, I don't want to sit around when a pullback occurs, even if AAPL ends the week higher, the time decay on these calls is just too big a liability. This morning's momentum offered a nice exit just under 1.9% and thus far, a VERY timely one as upside momentum faded just as soon as we got a small lift from the swing down when I posted I was closing the position; it turns out waiting an extra minute or two allowed us to close in to upside momentum.


 At the fill above of $34.50, the AAPL calls made nearly +33%

As for AAPL near term and a bit longer term...

This intraday 1 min, along with the general market analysis was enough to convince me that the time decay at this point, with this gain in place on the day was going to be the main factor in influencing price and not for the better.

 A longer view of the trend of the same 1 min chart also confirms this as the highest near term probability.

Here's the 2 min chart's trend since accumulation and the move up

Here's the 2 min chart intraday with a relative negative divergence so the negative divergence was getting stronger as it migrated through longer timeframes, still this is short term action, but long enough to damage the profits in the calls.

AAPL 10 min looks like it could see a decent pullback at this level

The 15 min chart tells me (as of now), that AAPL has more gas in the tank, after a pullback, we should be able to ride AAPL higher, but I don't see a high probability set-up / timing for an entry for a put play, I'd prefer to wait for a pullback and look for accumulation in the pullback telling us AAPL is getting ready to make a run for a new high for this leg as the correction ends.

As for why, other than the overall market tone, AAPL is at a serious resistance area as well as resistance provided by a gap (yellow), this seems like the perfect area for AAPL to run in to congestion and move toward a pullback before it likely continues higher to a new high for this leg up, we'll likely be in on that trade so long as the probabilities look high and the risk low with good timing signals.


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