I'm working on the Leading Indicators post and as soon as I saw the first few indications, I immediately check the SPY arbitrage to see if it was improving as it looked like some levers were being pulled from the Leading Indicators layout, no surprise...
It's not quite positive, but it is 30 minutes delayed, but it is moving up and at this point, only a $.05 negative differential, as I suspected, this is why prices are sitting where they are with these negative divergences.
I still think it has something to do with this...
At least 80% of reversals pull a head fake move first and in this case, that's the SPY moving above $159.27, we already know it will be a head fake move from the depth of the leading negative divergences, but these failed breakouts create strong momentum for a reversal and the fact that they are now using levers tells me they haven't been able to make the $.12 cent move and need the extra help of short term intraday manipulation, most is coming from Treasuries-TLT.
Is interest rates about to start going up?
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Yes, I know - it does not make any sense - FED is about to cut
rates...but....real world interest rates are not always what FED wants it
to be.
5 years ago
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