Monday, April 29, 2013

Market Update

Although I think (as mentioned before), this is a tradable area to the downside, I'd prefer to wait for a stronger setup; that may be a quick bottom and upside move to finish this upside move we expected and got. However that is just a means to another end in getting set up on the short side in to price strength, as I showed last night and last week, the negative divergences are building faster than I would have thought so I don't think we are too far from that which is the real goal here.

As for intraday charts, they have gone more negative, CONTEXT for ES and SPY Arbitrage both look interesting, there are some currencies that seem a little hung up/stuck right now so after this I'm going to check the futures there as well as the Leading Indicators layout.

In any case, here are the intraday divergences for the averages, remember these started going negative last week so the intraday confirmation is more tactical than strategic (timing).
Speaking of timing, the head fake move is one of the best timing tools, for the SPX a move above $1592.64 would represent the head fake area, if I saw that coming and I were aggressive, the moment it crossed back below that level I'd be looking for intraday shorts, maybe a bit longer.

 ES intraday

NQ intraday

DIA intraday leading negative this morning like the futures above...

IWM 2 min deeply leading negative.

Same with the Q's

And the SPY

Another indication to watch for timing (although it has very little trend this morning which is telling in itself, is the NYSE intraday TICK, look for any change in character/trend as it usually is found there just before price moves.

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