Leading Indicators...

Some of these indications were captured as I first posted that the levers were being pulled to get the SPX above that resistance level and create a head fake move and some I went back and grabbed captures after they no longer needed to pull the levers, the break out is self-sustaining as retail buys it, until retail can't hold it anymore.

It will be interesting if we have the time to go back later and see at least how TLT, VXX and HYG acted.

*All Leading Indicators are compared to the SPX in green unless otherwise noted.

 High Yield Credit was not following the SPX on the breakout move-obviously this was captured after, but HY credit is not one of the 3 levers, the 3 levers are High Yield Corporate Credit (HYG), TLT (20+ Year Treasuries) and VXX (Short-term VIX Futures).

I'm not surprised HY credit didn't confirm and instead put in a negative divergence at the break out area or the head fake area I mentioned well over an hour ago.

This is HYG BEFORE the breakout move, it is keeping perfect pace with the SPX.

 Here's the slightly longer view where you can see HYG is higher than the SPX at roughly the same relative area (at the two highs seen above).

 This is an HYG capture after the breakout, HYG is no longer following the SPX, it fails to make a higher high; it is still negatively dislocated with the SPX, but not leading yet.

This is HYG intraday 3C seems to be keeping up, buy HYG is struggling, it's already at a negative divergence with Friday's trade.

TLT seems to be the main lever and it is one of the 3, this was the first I saw negatively diverging BEFORE the breakout, this is when I posted the "Levers" post and showed you the SPY arbitrage improvement.

 Note how TLT gapped up this morning WITH 3C confirmation of the move, then saw a negative divergence on an intraday chart to push it lower, thereby effecting the SPY arbitrage value.

 You can see the same in Yields, they were moving negative and around the same time as the other levers were pulled, Yields started rising, helping the market BEFORE the breakout. Yields ARE NOT confirming the SPX move, although I wouldn't expect them to.

 VXX is one that is holding up better than it should be, it's the same phenomena we saw just before the last 2.3% 1-day correction in the SPX, it was seen in TLT also and we saw the same late last week.

VXX is seeing a positive divergence as you might expect in to lower prices here after the SPX move.

 The $AUD is broadly supportive of the market as can be seen between the two relative price (SPX) highs.

Intraday though it goes flat at the SPX breakout and has not been supportive since then, actually declining since.

 Euro is also broadly supportive, this is one reason I think the pullback/consolidation will be short lived to finish up the upside move, then these should all start negatively diverging with the SPX. The fact they hadn't is why I'm not so hot on playing a downside move.... yet

 The Euro intraday was supportive until the breakout, now it is negatively diverging.

 The Yen became supportive as it moved down, although I doubt this is part of any manipulation.

I'm going to check currencies because as I said before, they were the asset class that was hung up earlier.