I actually have liked AAPL and the probabilities looked good for AAPL, but the diffrence between probabilities and High probabilities is all the difference in the world. AAPL's short end charts never caught up to the longer end promise and I still think there's a decent move for AAPL, a real counter trend move, but near term I think the high probability trade is to the downside.
Yesterday you may recall I saw something bullish in AAPL and said I thought it would probably mov higher, but I still didn't want to get caught up in a trade that didn't meet the standards as they can give you nasty surprises.
I chose the longer expiration even though I'm expecting a shorter term move 1) because I don't like Thursday/Friday action near op-ex pins and in case there's something bigger in AAPL.
Here are the AAPL charts.
Short term is where the issues have been- 1 min
1 min zoomed out
2 min at a new leading low in to higher prices
The 5 min is where I held some hope the shorter charts would come together.
Here's the 5 min zoomed in
The longer term 15 min is one of the reasons I have liked AAPL, but I suspect it may make another run lower to form a larger base. Remember it lost over 200 points or about 40%
The weekly chart shows the longer history of APL, compare to MSFT before 2000. The chart shows distribution and considering a 200+ point drop and 40+%, I'd say it did a good job.
Intraday momentum and RSI are also negative as well as the 15 min chart
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