Futures

Here are the Equity Index Futures I mentioned in the last post. None of these even need annotations on the chart, in a few places I have made them to point out something.

 ES 1 min obviously doesn't need any annotations, the divergence is exceedingly clear.

 ES 5 min has been in the worst shape, I drew on this to point out the difference which is extreme, not only the last several days of being down.

 NQ 1 min, here I'm pointing out the earlier negative divergence and the late day attempt to ramp the NASDA 100 futures which failed, I also wanted to point out the current divergence is deeply leading negative.

 NQ 5 min

 TF 1 min I think does a  good job considering the IWM divergences.

TF 5 min with a notation showing the depth of the large relative divergence, it's truly leading, but we are looking at it on a relative basis (2 relative points).


I didn't find much in currencis that we haven't already seen except the possibly very troublesome Yen, this is the USD/JPY chart

 There's a positive divergence on the 1 min in the pair.

 The 1 min Yen is also positive

As is the 5 min Yen.

Conventional Carry Trade Wisdom has been a falling Yen is good for the carry trade, the BOJ seems to have let a monster lose that it's trying to control, the Yen could drop at an insane pace and as that happens, the negative effects are seen in their JGB bond market, which is considered to be the sign that the BOJ has failed, so every day (at least the past 2 days), the BOJ seems to be trying harder to manage the Yen and keep the USD/JPY at $100, which would need a little more Yen weakness. This positive divergence in the Yen will send the USD/JPY away from $100, especially if the $USD appreciates so this will be interesting to see if the conventional wisdom changes.