Wednesday, April 10, 2013

Intraday Head Fake?

As we have all pretty much seen at some point, the market is fractal in nature, things that happen on long charts happen on short charts.

The head fake concept which you can read more about linked at the top right of the site is a move just before a reversal that makes a new high/low or breaks resistance/support or through a pattern, it's job is to get retail  in as smart money gets out and other things as seen in the linked articles.

It's also used for stop runs and other things.

Here's one potential Head fake in the SPY, it will probably be resolved before I finish this post, but it's good to be aware of the concept and how to use it to your advantage.


 Note the TICK (green) moving with the market earlier today and then it starts trending down meaning fewer stocks are closing higher vs their last tick ( 1 min bar), then there's a move above the channel, this can often start new trends, or it can be a head fake move, which comes just before a significant reversal.

 Here's the TICK compared to the SPY in blue, note they move together early on and then the TICK moves down against the SPY's trend, then the move above the channel.

 There's significant volume there, it's not usually smart money accumulating as they rarely do that in to higher prices, it can be part of a head fake move to make it more convincing or can be part of a distribution/churning move -often both at the same time.

 The SPY 2 min 3C chart

 3 min chart

And more importantly the 1 min chart.

The SPY hasn't answered the question quite yet, but since then intraday volatility has picked up. A lot of people are expecting SPY 160, SPX 1600. This move is just part of the bigger puzzle, but to me it doesn't look good for this time of day. Watch volatility around these areas, it can be heavy.

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