Thursday, April 18, 2013

Gold / GLD charts

Here's a plethora or virtual cornucopia (That may be a tiny bit of hyperbole, I'd make a good politician though) of 3C GLD and YG (Gold E-mini futures) as well as the $USD (which typically trades opposite of precious metals-or at least it did before the F_E_D turned everything on its head).

I do NOT like analyzing or trading Gold/GLD or Silver/SLV because they are so heavily manipulated and unpredictable, look at last week's move- a 30 some odd year decline! In any case, 3C wasn't giving a long signal so that's not a problem.

The point is, for me to open positions in either of these, I have to be feeling pretty darn confident in something I see.

 GLD 5 min with the negative just before the fall, we also had a very nice trade (long leveraged gold April 4th, sold April 9th-bought at the very lows/sold at the very highs) and a current positive leading divergence.

 10 min with clear leading negative divergences and a very clear leading positive

 15 min (one of my favorite timeframes) with a strong leading positive and it has put in the time, it didn't just dead cat bounce.

 30 min with a VERY clear distribution trend and now a relative and leading positive divergence (that's often the order they form in).

Gold Futures...
 30 min leading positive and large volume at the end of the decline looks like short term capitulation, I'll cover the primary trend in gold which seems to be in a bear market, of this is a very sharp bounce/counter trend rally, we'll have even better evidence of a bear market which I suspected started back in 2011.

This is the 30 min chart of the $USDX (US Dollar Index) which has been pulling back from a primary trend base and it looks like it will make one more move lower at least before reversing back to the primary trend which should benefit stocks and gold, at least until the primary trend continues, then watch out below in stocks and probably gold.

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