Thursday, April 18, 2013

Market Update-Tactical and Strategic Thoughts

Could it be? Could I be so use to seeing Wall Street's manipulation and corruption that I'm actually starting to think like them? That's a big gold star on a resume to work on Wall Street:

"Professional Trader and Analyst, but more importantly, HAVE THE ABILITY TO THINK LIKE A CROOK... and willing to travel (less than 100 miles a week though)"

Last night's post, "Positions" at 5:12 p.m. (which means I started typing at 4:01 p.m.-with my two index fingers and 1 thumb, "Hunt and Peck-school of typing") I included several scenarios under the theoretical heading of... "If it were me".

These moves for today included taking out 6.5 weeks of longs on an intraday move of less than 1 % in the SPy/SPX, it looked like this...
With a move below the yellow line, everyone in the yellow box, 6.5 weeks of positions, are all at a loss providing a large flood of stops that can be accumulated on the cheap with plenty of supply which is the important part for Wall Street.

Also in the post...
 At minimum at least taking out the SPY 50-day moving average on an intraday basis, which puts us close to the idea above so might as well go for that while your at it.

And definitively breaking the 50-day QQQ average as traders are still on the fence with a high volume of end of day stops hit yesterday at the close as the QQQ moved 1 penny below the 50-day moving average during the last minute of trade.

So far the SPY 50-day is at $154.35 which saw an increase in volume this morning as price moved just below it, not a large increase, but noticeable.

The SPY support that takes out 6.5 weeks of trade is at $153.39, about another half a percent lower.

And the QQQ saw stops hit as the 50 was definitively broken as the low from yesterday at $67.71 was taken out.

Considering this morning's futures analysis after putting it all together... With the conclusion:

The take away would be (if I'm near correct) EARLY WEAKNESS IN THE MARKET FOLLOWED BY STRENGTH, which is what I was talking about after market yesterday when I said, "If it were me... "I'd run the stops at nearby support and below 50-day moving averages, accumulate those stopped out shares and run the market up from there. That could very well happen within 1 trading day and the best thing is, the Index futures timeframes, both very short term and slightly longer agree.

I think we are on track, not just because of price, but because the 3C chart by and large are staying positive on this morning's move, that's important in verifying a head fake move which is what I suggested last night, so I'll bring you some of that as well as some potential positions if this looks like it's going to change fast on us.


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