Friday, May 17, 2013

AAPL Update

AAPL still looks good for an add-to or starting a new short position, I'd prefer a wider stop and less shares on a new position as I always do.

I don't see this as a great put candidate as there's no upside momentum to buy a put in to, maybe that changes, but it's not looking good for AAPL here as it seems to be well on its way to returning to the primary downtrend after a brief, but impressive counter trend rally.

 This is the longer term daily AAPL chart to the top, in green it was still trending up normally-somewhat any way. In yellow there's a change in character as price accelerates, this looks bullish, but is often a sign of the trend ending, in orange the topping area and red is a primary downtrend, lost over 315 points or -45%, in white we have the first counter trend rally, as I have said repeatedly, counter-trend rallies in a bear market (AAPL is in a bear) are some of the strongest rallies you'll see, but now it's fading and has a small bounce.

Closer (1-day) the Counter trend rally, quite impressive, then it turned as distribution was present all the way through, we have a simple bounce within that reversal it appears, I like this as an area to add to a position you may be building, please read my article, "How to make more than 100% on a short" for explanations as to how and why we add to shorts that are working.

1 min 3C

3 min with accumulation for the bounce and distribution in to it

5 min

Overall 60 min downtrend with counter trend rally.

I still like AAPL here, but for newer positions I'd prefer to phase in, older positions with profit under the belt, I like to just keep adding without violating risk management rules.

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