Early Update

Last night I said TLT would pullback today, II might have mentioned VXX too. With HYG still near yesterday's close and TLT and VXX down, that's the perfect positive SPY arbitrage, is it manipulation? I don't think TLT is, it's a gap fill, VXX probably isn't., HYG is from yesterday, but it's left overs.

 Yesterday I expected this triangle to break out to the upside, but as a false move or head fake, as I said yesterday, no significant reversal is going to occur without a head fake right before it, unless the sellers cause a stampede, this is EXACTLY what happened in AAPL.  I covered the short as a head fake move was all set to go higher and I was going to re-open the short at higher prices, but the sellers stepped in overwhelmingly, all trying to fit through 1 small door at the same time and AAPL went down like a rock. It seemed like this is what happened yesterday, in fact I'm pretty darn sure that's what happened after looking at everything as you saw in last night's post.

This morning with the perfect positive arbitrage in place, the SPY is moving in that direction, but not under ideal circumstances. Also the op-ex pin today will be a factor, or it won't which will get really interesting fast.

 Here's the intraday SPY right now, but look at the same chart's trend and this is why I say it's not in very good position at this time.

The exact same chart as above zoomed out, if money was supporting the move 3C would be moving with price, money is coming out of the move.

 As mentioned HYG is still elevated from yesterday, but the negative divergence/distribution in to its run is putting it in a weak position to hold or gain much without significant money being dropped in to support a risk asset every one has been selling to get out of.

TLT was set for a normal gap fill pullback yesterday so that's nothing manipulative, it will take a bit of time today and maybe longer for the positive divergences (for TLT to be accumulated) on the pullback to materialize, but then TLT will be a viable long set up or any of the leveraged versions of T's.

VXX has a VERY small negative divergence at EOD yesterday, on the pullback this morning it's already being accumulated, so that doesn't leave the SPY in great position, I'd be looking at any significant price strength (+.50% or more) as an opportunity and as the head fake move.