TLT

I had several emails about whether TLT would be a buy early this morning as it was moving down, as I try to show, a reversal, even a 1-day reversal is a process and not an event, that's why TLT needed to turn lateral, a move from down to up (a "V" reversal) is very unlikely, I'd say maybe 1 in 300, but if you look at TLT intraday you will see the decline from yesterday and the rounding today or lateral movement is about the right size for the decline.

Accumulation continues in TLT, this could have been a gap fill, it could have been to equalize the ground HYG was losing to stabilize the SPY for an op-ex pin although I doubt that, but possible as HYG was showing heavy distribution yesterday.

In any case, I'd feel comfortable phasing in to a TLT position right now, depending on the trade either in 2 or 3 parts, but more likely 2 parts.

I'm not sure bout a call, although if we do get a crack, TLT will fly as we just saw the biggest move up yesterday in 5 weeks and it was under significant accumulation the days leading up to yesterday so a call out to June or so may indeed pay off.

I do like what I'm seeing for those of you who asked. It just needed some time.