AAPL Update

With the NASDAQ Futures and especially the QQQ intraday chart looking the way it does, I figured I'd check in on our new entry, AAPL  short Equity and AAPL Put positions, both of which are at a profit as of now.

Since I've covered AAPL at length yesterday and recently this doesn't need to be a full update as nothing has changed in the longer charts, I only show a few to you to make a point and show a concept that I speak of often.

 AAPL 1 min intraday leading positive divergence.


However back out the 1 min trend and you see something quite different, remember this chart as it will come in handy later in the post when I get to the concept part, specifically remember the ROC (Rate of Change) in price as the divergence builds, it should be fairly obvious visibly, but you can always add ROC to the chart.

 The 2 min chart has a relative positive divergence, this makes sense, it's not as strong as the 1 min which means there's minimal migration and a rather weak overall divergence, it's to move AAPL on a very short term basis, it doesn't threaten our positions at all.

 The 3 min chart shows no divergence at all, meaning there's no migration, the bulk of the strength is contained to the 1 min chart which is the weakest timeframe for underlying trade.

 The 5 min chart leading negative is the obvious development from the 3 min chart as the 1 min intraday divergence is simply a new intraday divergence (all new divergences start on the earliest timeframe) and as it has not moved to the 3 min or even close to where institutional activity starts at the 5 min, it is no threat to our short position/put.

That doesn't mean it can't make an emotional move, but far too many traders get lost in the lines and concentrate too much on intraday or day to day trade and miss the big picture right in front of them.

The 10 min chart is interesting, the positive divergence is actually much bigger, you recall we had seen it on and off for well over a month before the move started, however the 10 min negative is perfectly in sync with the concept I'll lay out and remember a bear market (AAPL's) counter trend rally acts VERY different from a normal rally or traditional one.

The 15 min chart with the natural progression of accumulation, mark up, distribution and decline, all 4 stages, we are moving in to stage 4.

Going all the way back to the intraday chart I asked you to remember to the 15 min chart above, you know how often I say that reversals are a process, not an event, meaning they don't typically go from a down trend like AAPL's to a sudden move up the next day and a rally following it, there's a process, this is because of the size of Wall Street's positions, it takes them time to get in to and change positions.

The head fake low in AAPL was the perfect market for the reversal to the upside. We have one head fake marker on the upside already, it's not that strong so as I said before, the 1 and 2 min charts don't threaten our positions at all, but as I said above...

"That doesn't mean it can't make an emotional move, but far too many traders get lost in the lines and concentrate too much on intraday or day to day trade and miss the big picture right in front of them."

In other words, the 1 min positive "Could", with AAPL in the condition it is in, I want short exposure now, but as you'll recall, I did specifically leave room to add in AAPL, this is one potential reason why, the 1/2 min charts are no threat, but they can cause those who are too lost in the lines to make an emotional decision with a head fake move, even those who know it "could be coming" and it would be the best entry we could ask for, there are those that will still fear it, even when they know what to expect.

In any case, I don't know if it does or not, but we want to watch for it as a potential opportunity. If we get nothing like it, at least the concepts are worth understanding.