Leading Indicators

Some interesting NY FED analyst new out with a report of "5 more years of stock increases"...

In any case, usually I would not want to put up a post this large at this time of the day, but it's important to see what's going on and it's important to see what's now at stake.

In no particular order...

 SPY Arbitrage

CONTEXT, very strange from last night's instant flip

Treasuries in green acting as they should intraday vs. the SPX, yellow they respond, but hold up much better than they should, in red they are following the SPX higher, exactly the opposite, this is a reach for safety in Treasuries, despite the market's gains, incredible.

I showed last night where the distribution was to knock treasuries down and the accumulation to send them back up and the timing of the Treasury move that allowed the market to break resistance and make a SPX and Dow new high, as you can see TLT is reversing to the upside.

 Long term TLT v SPX note where the arrow starts and ends, how much higher the SPY is, TLT should be at a new low, note the support, real demand and it's been there all year, this is bigger than a correction move. Also TLT moving up against the normal correlation.

 HYG not following to make a new high with the SPX, although it does seem it was used as a ;lever earlier, it just won't follow anymore.

 In fact this is the most recent chart, more distribution and HYG stuck under yesterday's close, not willing to be used as a lever any more.

 VXX  looks to be used as a lever today, but if the correlation were correct, it would be at a new low even intraday so it's holding up stronger than they'd like.

VXX longer term, this is the move toward protection we have seen all week as VXX moves up with the SPX.

 Longer term, look where the SPX is at the small red line and where VXX is, VXX should be making a new low as deep as the SPX's gains.

Yields are again divergent, largely because of the flight to safety in treasuries.

 This is the behavior this week, negative again

 And since the November 16th lows. We had a negative divergence in this indicator in 2012 that was about a month long and much smaller, it sent all of our equity shorts-every one to double digit gains in 2 months w/ no leverage, this is multiples larger.

 Now pay attention to currencies-the AUD is only willing to go so far in support of the SPX.

Same with the Euro

The SPX is moving up AGAINST the $USD, I don't know how long it can keep that up, but this is the reason why, I wrote about this 5 weeks ago and here it is, just a theory back then and now a reality.

If you read the article you'll know that today's bullishness by the Yen is not going to end well for the market.

The Yen breaks support and the SPX breaks resistance at the exact same time, we have seen this every day this week, major turning points where both cross at the exact same time.

 HIO's long term  divergence

And FCT's, these are larger market implications.

Right now intraday the Yen in key