Thursday, May 9, 2013

Pre-Market

As you already know from last night, one of the main economic events was South Koreas central bank cutting their rates by 25 basis points, this was unexpected, but if you consider how close they are to and the economic gravitational pull exerted by, Japan and consider what Japan has done with the red button option, the most aggressive easing the world has seen, the move by South Korea really shouldn't be that surprising. Who can afford not to be debase their currency that is as close to Japan as South Korea... That's actually a trick question, I know of one country that can't, they are in the area, it starts with a "C" and ends with an "A".

China reported consumer price inflation increasing by 2.4%, on expectations of a 2.3% rise, driven by a 4% jump in food costs. China also reported consumer price inflation increasing by 2.4%, on expectations of a 2.3% rise, driven by a 4% jump in food costs.

Also in the area the Austraslian Jobs report had a surprising beat sending currencies in all directions last night, but as I said last night, something didn't look right.

It took a while to develop, but develop it did.

Take a look at some of these futures...

There's still something odd. Last night all of the FX futures had positive divergences and they moved up on the news on those divergences, I said something didn't look right and they stopped moving up and moved down instead. The same happened with index futures, they had a positive divergence and they moved up on all the data coming in last night, but failed and moved down the rest of the night, they still give me the same feeling as last night when I didn't trust the move up.

I'll post the currencies later, for now the Index futures where the only one I trust is TF, it's the only one that behaved as it should have last night.

 ES 1 min has the same inconsistency that I didn't trust last night and even though every thing should have shot up, it failed as II thought with very little to back it up, except nothing looked right.

 The bigger 15 min trend looks a bit different and still negative.

NQ 1 min is not consistent with ES

NQ 15 min is, but even worse

TF is the only one that acted as I imagined it would, including ALL of the currencies

TF 15 min is also negative.

I'll post some of the currencies, the point is, there were many little red flags, not one big one to point to and the red flags were right, they are there again this morning 

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