Thursday, May 9, 2013

It's Not Going to Be As Easy As You Might Think


These red flags in divergences last night and today show me something, just like with AAPL, the herd is breaking apart and the "He who sells first, sells best" mentality is taking over. This is every fund manager for themselves now, this is why the market gets more unpredictable, the herd is breaking apart, that's what last night and today's FX signals were all about.

Obviously a lot of things are looking like we are seeing a serious change in character in the market, I'd say the serious change, the time to really pay attention and when we look back in the future was when the trend channel broke. AAPL had a moment like this too, when its back was broken, but it still made additional gains, as I warned back when the Channel broke, "A Snake with a broken back is more dangerous than ever".

The changes in character have been in front of your eyes all this year, but especially this week, not simply today.

The point is, Volatility is not going to get batter, this isn't resolved and we all are happy shorts. The volatility will get worse, the emotional swings will get worse. Wall Street doesn't  want anyone riding this train early, they want you to chase it and they will make life very difficult until then.

Be aware of the volatility not just in price, in the daily ATR, in the intraday moves, in an emotional way.

Your best defense is to enter trades at favorable areas, low risk, good entries and high probabilities, this will allow you to ride out the onslaught coming.

Now more than ever, be patient and keep your eye on the big picture, the day to day and even week to week stuff at this point is great for tactical use by us, but you have to look beyond that at the objective data, not emotions, not CNBC headlines or Cramer.


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