It looks like They're cranking on TLT pretty hard, although there's a reasonable play there, it seems VIX Futures as well, HYG is pretty hard, that's being sold hard. They had to do something to keep a panic so I wouldn't doubt some NY F_E_D traders stepped in, they had a .75% loss in the SPX in about an hour off highs of the day.
Remember what I said in my last post.
Lets take a look, although I won't have the leading indicator style charts here...
2 p.m is when the Arb situation started changing for the positive, that's also the time pressure set in on the SPY and it lost ground from the intraday high to the intraday low in 1 uninterrupted move.
This is VXX, I got a lot of emails today from people amazed to SEE TLT moving up with the SPX, this is what I've been showing you all week, it's been happening through relative strength, they couldn't move the VXX or TLT because there was real demand there, today they seemingly gave up for a while as the Yen seemed to take over, but even that started to change right at 2 p.m.
This 5 min chart of VXX shows there was definite a move to suppress its intraday strength as that makes the market situation worse.
As far as the real demand trend
goes, as I have been saying, this isn't new, this has been going on all year and if you wonder where the money came from as the market was making new highs, look at the decay in breadth from 80% bullish stocks to 40% as the market was making new highs, more and more stocks were selling off below their 40 day and 200 day moving averages.
This is a 4 hour chart, that's serious demand.
TLT on a 2 hour, I showed you the positive on the daily last night, this is a bit more detailed, GAIN, SOME OF THIS STARTED SINCE THE NOVEMBER 16TH CYCLE LOWS AND RALLY, MOST STARTED AT THE NEW YEAR AND ACCELERATED AFTER THE TREND CHANNEL WAS BROKEN AND THE YEN STARTED SHOWING CRACKS IN ITS TREND.
(sorry about the caps, I didn't notice).
TLT intraday still has a beautiful reversal process, last night I showed you the move to bring TLT down and how it immediately allows the market to make the new highs, in fact to push through some resistance.
However, as beautiful as a rounding bottom is, we all should know by now what the highest probability play is here, you see the support, the yellow arrow is a hint.
Some of you have asked if I have long positions open in TLT, I always tell you before I start any, but the answer is no, however if you are interested, a head fake move with 3C positive confirmation is the best entry, it also gets some heat off the market for a bit as this is one of the levers.
TLT 15 min doesn't show any damage, but they had to use enough to make a serious difference and fast.
The 1 min chart shows some, although this may just be the normal manipulation. It's really the 5 min chart that did it, that's large enough to come across as institutional selling, oit was done in a short timespan so any tape readers are going to immediately think there's something negative going on in treasuries, but more than anything it moved the lever enough, fast enough to halt the SPX slide.
If you like TLT, be patient, if you are using leading indicators, don't forget this post, I can see a bunch of emails saying, "Did you see what TLT did?" Now you know, they used enough firepower to raise questions, but more importantly to send it down in the time they needed which was immediately.
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