Thursday, May 9, 2013

Intraday Currencies

The typical Risk currencies on an intraday basis, look like they've just about bottomed for this swing from last night's highs to the overnight decline that has continued in to the regular market hours.

I see positive (small, but positive) divergences in $AUD, Euro, EUR/USD, but not in EUR/JPY.

Similarly as you'd expect, there are intraday (remember the 5 min $USD is positive and is the larger trend), there are 1 min intraday negatives in the $USD, and possibly one forming in the USD/JPY.

The EUR/JPY and AUD/JPY are interesting because there's no real signal there, given the $USD/JPY's possible signal, the obvious place to look is the Yen. The Yen looks to be starting a relative positive divergence.

This could be very interesting. The risk on currencies are more developed in their divergences so I'd expect some market relief to the upside intraday, but with the Yen signal apparently starting to develop, we may find out once and for all how important it is, if it can indeed crush the risk on currencies.

I think we'll find out soon enough.

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